Games against the Suns always make me nervous. Dating back to the ‘06/’07 season, the Spurs have played the Suns 20 times, including the two times they met in the playoffs. The Spurs have won 12 of these contests and lost 8. In victories, the Spurs won by an average of 5.6 points. In defeats, the Spurs have lost by an average of 11.9 points. So basically, it’s either a nail biter or the Spurs lose. Of the past 20 meetings, 14 have been decided by 7 points or less.
This year, the Suns match up well with the Spurs. In the past, under the D’Antoni 7 seconds or less system, the Suns simply would try to outscore the Spurs and did not worry about defense. After consistently losing to the Spurs in the playoffs, the Suns made a change. They hired Steve Kerr as their General Manager and lost coach D’Antoni to the Knicks’ wallet. Kerr hired the defensive oriented Terry Porter to coach his club and then made a trade in which he acquired Shaquile O’Neal. This move was made specifically with the Spurs in mind. They hoped that Shaq would give them a competent defender to throw at Tim Duncan, and also give the Suns more options in the playoffs when the game slowed down.
Through the magic of the Suns’ outstanding medical staff, Shaq is playing as he did in the ‘05/’06 season when he helped the Miami Heat win a championship. Shaq is a scary defender for Tim Duncan. Although Tim is much quicker than Shaq, Shaq gets the All Star treatment from the refs and is able to use his body and arms to not let Tim by, which is a foul if it’s anyone else doing the pushing. Because of this, Tim needs his outside shot to drop in order to have a good game against Shaq.
Honestly, I feel this game is a coin flip. I think it will be decided in the final minute of the game, and given the stars that the Suns have and that the game is in Phoenix, I think they are going to get the critical calls. At the same time, the Spurs have been extremely clutch this season, so they have an edge there. Also, the Suns do not have anyone to guard Manu. In the past, Raja Bell would get that assignment, but they recently traded him. Look for Manu to have a big night. Bottom line, Spurs by 5.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
CAUTION: Bumpy Road Ahead
First, let me apologise for the crudeness of the chart posted below. Funny enough, I spent all of yesterday in Austin listening to Edward Tufte's lecture on "Presenting Data and Information." I had the data set up perfectly in Excel, and then in Word, but could not figure out how to transfer it to this blog. If you click on the data, it will take you to a cleaner version of the same chart, still imperfect though.
Before the season began, I printed out the Spurs' schedule and went through predicting whether we would win or lose each game. In the post below, I listed my results thus far. Overall, I am 32-12 in my predictions, which means I have guessed correctly 72% of the games. However, when I filled out my predictions, I was expecting to have a healthy Tony Parker. If I do not count the games in which we were missing Tony, my record improves to 23-5, or 82%.
Regardless of how you look at it, my predictions are normally pretty accurate. Now for the scary news, I have the Spurs going 7-6 over their next 13 games, and that is very optimistic. 9 of these games are on the road, thanks to the Rodeo Road Trip, and 10 are against teams competing for a playoff spot, 8 of which have winning records. Looking at it now, I would say we beat the Warriors and lose to the Nuggets, and we drop a game either to Dallas or Portland in that back to back, reducing the record to 6-7 over the next 13 games. After this stretch, get ready to hear the, "They're too old" talk for a while. Age has nothing to do with this extremely difficult schedule. If the Spurs can get through this with a winning record, it's looking good for the playoffs. If not, there is no need to panic. This stretch is absurdly difficult.
45 Thu, Jan 29, 2009 Phoenix Suns L
46 Sat, Jan 31, 2009 New Orleans Hornets L
47 Mon, Feb 2, 2009 Golden State Warriors L
48 Tue, Feb 3, 2009 Denver Nuggets W
49 Sun, Feb 8, 2009 Boston Celtics L
50 Tue, Feb 10, 2009 New Jersey Nets W
51 Wed, Feb 11, 2009 Toronto Raptors W
52 Tue, Feb 17, 2009 New York Knick W
53 Thu, Feb 19, 2009 Detroit Pistons L
54 Sat, Feb 21, 2009 Washington Wizards W
55 Tue, Feb 24, 2009 Dallas Mavericks W
56 Wed, Feb 25, 2009 Portland Trail Blazers W
57 Fri, Feb 27, 2009 Cleveland Cavaliers L
Before the season began, I printed out the Spurs' schedule and went through predicting whether we would win or lose each game. In the post below, I listed my results thus far. Overall, I am 32-12 in my predictions, which means I have guessed correctly 72% of the games. However, when I filled out my predictions, I was expecting to have a healthy Tony Parker. If I do not count the games in which we were missing Tony, my record improves to 23-5, or 82%.
Regardless of how you look at it, my predictions are normally pretty accurate. Now for the scary news, I have the Spurs going 7-6 over their next 13 games, and that is very optimistic. 9 of these games are on the road, thanks to the Rodeo Road Trip, and 10 are against teams competing for a playoff spot, 8 of which have winning records. Looking at it now, I would say we beat the Warriors and lose to the Nuggets, and we drop a game either to Dallas or Portland in that back to back, reducing the record to 6-7 over the next 13 games. After this stretch, get ready to hear the, "They're too old" talk for a while. Age has nothing to do with this extremely difficult schedule. If the Spurs can get through this with a winning record, it's looking good for the playoffs. If not, there is no need to panic. This stretch is absurdly difficult.
45 Thu, Jan 29, 2009 Phoenix Suns L
46 Sat, Jan 31, 2009 New Orleans Hornets L
47 Mon, Feb 2, 2009 Golden State Warriors L
48 Tue, Feb 3, 2009 Denver Nuggets W
49 Sun, Feb 8, 2009 Boston Celtics L
50 Tue, Feb 10, 2009 New Jersey Nets W
51 Wed, Feb 11, 2009 Toronto Raptors W
52 Tue, Feb 17, 2009 New York Knick W
53 Thu, Feb 19, 2009 Detroit Pistons L
54 Sat, Feb 21, 2009 Washington Wizards W
55 Tue, Feb 24, 2009 Dallas Mavericks W
56 Wed, Feb 25, 2009 Portland Trail Blazers W
57 Fri, Feb 27, 2009 Cleveland Cavaliers L
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Spurs, Jazz Preview
Quickly, I expect the Spurs to win this game by 12. The Jazz have been inconsistent all season, mainly due to injuries. But this means that they have not found their rhythm yet. The Spurs were destroyed by the Lakers in their last outing and had a few days to let it fester. They will come out tonight very focused. Manu was off against the Lakers, so look for him to pour in around 20. Bottom line, Spurs by 12.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Spurs, Lakers Preview
If we beat the Nets tonight, I have a really bad feeling for the rematch with the Lakers. First, the Lakers are going to want revenge. The Lakers probably played their best game of the year against the Spurs and still lost.
I was upset with all of the excuses ESPN came up with for the Lakers after the game. They claimed that the Lakers should feel great about the game because they nearly won with an injured bench on the backend of a back to back. First, the fact that their bench was injured helped the Lakers. It forced them to play their starters playoff minutes. Kobe only sat out for 6 minutes the entire game. So if Walton was in there, the Lakers would have won? Would you bet your life on that? Absolutely not. And although it was their second game in two nights, they were not fatigued at all. The Lakers were pushing it until the very end. I was there and kept telling myself, eventually they will run out of gas. That never happened. You cannot tell me that the Lakers could have played better. They shot 56% from the field and 56% from the three point line with only 11 turnovers. Gasol and Bynum were on fire and Fisher could not miss from three point land. Even some guy named Josh Powell could not miss. And Kobe was Kobe in the fourth. Hitting big shots, playing great defense, and keeping his team’s concentration peaked. And the Lakers still could not get the W.
Back to Sunday’s game, it really feels like one of those games where the Spurs forget to show up in the first quarter and Pop accepts the loss before halftime. The Lakers will be looking for revenge. The Spurs will be looking ahead to this brutal stretch of games coming up. (I have the Spurs going 8-7 over the next 15.) And the game is at 2:30pm. The Spurs never play well in these early afternoon games. I guess it takes a while for our old guys to wake up.
Plus, if the Spurs lose, it will give Pop an excuse to berate the team to get them ready for the rodeo road trip. I know he just did this, but I think it was a little early. He needs to yell at them one more time before the rodeo road trip begins.
Don’t get me wrong here. Nothing would make me happier than the Spurs beating the Lakers in LA. I just have a bad feeling about this one, and my bad feelings are normally spot on.
I was upset with all of the excuses ESPN came up with for the Lakers after the game. They claimed that the Lakers should feel great about the game because they nearly won with an injured bench on the backend of a back to back. First, the fact that their bench was injured helped the Lakers. It forced them to play their starters playoff minutes. Kobe only sat out for 6 minutes the entire game. So if Walton was in there, the Lakers would have won? Would you bet your life on that? Absolutely not. And although it was their second game in two nights, they were not fatigued at all. The Lakers were pushing it until the very end. I was there and kept telling myself, eventually they will run out of gas. That never happened. You cannot tell me that the Lakers could have played better. They shot 56% from the field and 56% from the three point line with only 11 turnovers. Gasol and Bynum were on fire and Fisher could not miss from three point land. Even some guy named Josh Powell could not miss. And Kobe was Kobe in the fourth. Hitting big shots, playing great defense, and keeping his team’s concentration peaked. And the Lakers still could not get the W.
Back to Sunday’s game, it really feels like one of those games where the Spurs forget to show up in the first quarter and Pop accepts the loss before halftime. The Lakers will be looking for revenge. The Spurs will be looking ahead to this brutal stretch of games coming up. (I have the Spurs going 8-7 over the next 15.) And the game is at 2:30pm. The Spurs never play well in these early afternoon games. I guess it takes a while for our old guys to wake up.
Plus, if the Spurs lose, it will give Pop an excuse to berate the team to get them ready for the rodeo road trip. I know he just did this, but I think it was a little early. He needs to yell at them one more time before the rodeo road trip begins.
Don’t get me wrong here. Nothing would make me happier than the Spurs beating the Lakers in LA. I just have a bad feeling about this one, and my bad feelings are normally spot on.
"Vegas, Baby, Vegas" -- Bill Simmons
I'm hitting up Las Vegas this weekend. Recap to come Monday. All in.
Also, I know a lot of you are reading this. And I know you have a Gmail account. So click 'follow this blog.' I promise not to raid your inboxes.
Also, I know a lot of you are reading this. And I know you have a Gmail account. So click 'follow this blog.' I promise not to raid your inboxes.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
'09 Spurs are Most Clutch Spurs Team in Recent Memory
Anyone else notice that the Spurs have had many games come down to the wire this year? Well, I took a closer look at the numbers and the ’09 Spurs are the most clutch Spurs team since at least the 2003 championship season. They are more clutch than the ’03, ’05, and ’07 championship teams and all the teams in between.
This season, the Spurs have played in 16 games that have been decided by 5 points or less. The Spurs’ record in these games is 12-4. If you only look at the games in which the Big Three played in, the record improves to a stunning 8-1. You can chalk this up to many different things, but I like to think that this means when Pop stops messing around with the rotation, and plays the lineups that are going to win, the Spurs take care of business. When the playoffs come around, and the good lineups that consist of Manu, Tony, and Tim spend the majority of the game on the floor, watch out.
Now, let’s take a look at the numbers I just derived to see how this team compares to those of the past. Up to this point in the season in previous years, the following are the Spurs records in games decided by 5 points or less:
Year W-L
’03 9-7
’04 4-6
’05 5-5
’06 8-2
’07 3-6
’08 3-5
’09 8-1 with full roster. 12-4 including games without Tony or Manu.
In the championship seasons, here is a complete record of games decided by 5 points or less including playoffs:
Year W-L
‘03 23-14
’05 13-12
’07 13-11
'08 12-4
Retrieved from 82games.com, here are our most clutch players. These points are based on how productive a player is in a game with five minutes remaining and neither team leading by more than 5 points, extending the 5 minutes of production to a 48 minute average. In other words, if Tony played as aggresivley as he does in the last 5 minutes of a close game, he would average 40.3 points over 48 minutes of playing time.
Tony Parker 40.3 Points
Manu Ginobili 28.0 Points
Tim Duncan 27.4 Points
Roger Mason 20.4 Points
So, now you can see why the Spurs are 8-1 with Tony, Manu, and Tim on the floor in close games. As the season progresses, expect to see Tony’s clutch points drop and Manu’s to increase. Manu’s are lower because he had been struggling to find his rhythm since returning from injury. But Manu has played much better recently and expect him to have the ball more often than not in tight games. Clearly, the addition of Roger Mason cannot be overstated. Two of those 8 victories can be credited to him. And in years past, we have not had a consistent fourth clutch player in the closing minutes of tight games.
Side note: The $100 I put on the Spurs to win it all is looking like a better and better bet as the season progresses.
This season, the Spurs have played in 16 games that have been decided by 5 points or less. The Spurs’ record in these games is 12-4. If you only look at the games in which the Big Three played in, the record improves to a stunning 8-1. You can chalk this up to many different things, but I like to think that this means when Pop stops messing around with the rotation, and plays the lineups that are going to win, the Spurs take care of business. When the playoffs come around, and the good lineups that consist of Manu, Tony, and Tim spend the majority of the game on the floor, watch out.
Now, let’s take a look at the numbers I just derived to see how this team compares to those of the past. Up to this point in the season in previous years, the following are the Spurs records in games decided by 5 points or less:
Year W-L
’03 9-7
’04 4-6
’05 5-5
’06 8-2
’07 3-6
’08 3-5
’09 8-1 with full roster. 12-4 including games without Tony or Manu.
In the championship seasons, here is a complete record of games decided by 5 points or less including playoffs:
Year W-L
‘03 23-14
’05 13-12
’07 13-11
'08 12-4
Retrieved from 82games.com, here are our most clutch players. These points are based on how productive a player is in a game with five minutes remaining and neither team leading by more than 5 points, extending the 5 minutes of production to a 48 minute average. In other words, if Tony played as aggresivley as he does in the last 5 minutes of a close game, he would average 40.3 points over 48 minutes of playing time.
Tony Parker 40.3 Points
Manu Ginobili 28.0 Points
Tim Duncan 27.4 Points
Roger Mason 20.4 Points
So, now you can see why the Spurs are 8-1 with Tony, Manu, and Tim on the floor in close games. As the season progresses, expect to see Tony’s clutch points drop and Manu’s to increase. Manu’s are lower because he had been struggling to find his rhythm since returning from injury. But Manu has played much better recently and expect him to have the ball more often than not in tight games. Clearly, the addition of Roger Mason cannot be overstated. Two of those 8 victories can be credited to him. And in years past, we have not had a consistent fourth clutch player in the closing minutes of tight games.
Side note: The $100 I put on the Spurs to win it all is looking like a better and better bet as the season progresses.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
