Stress Reaction and Right Quad Tendonisis

I really feel that the Spurs are inventing injuries so that they can give Manu and Tim some much needed rest. The Spurs know that there is only one team in the West that can give them trouble, the Lakers. They also know that if they are missing one of their big three due to injury, they will not have a chance at winning the title. The Spurs are currently 8 games behind the Lakers, so home court advantage is an impossibility at this point. So what is the motivation to win games right now? The honest answer is that there really is no motivation, and the Gregg Popovich knows this. So the Spurs are diagnosing Tim and Manu with these extremely vague injuries so that they can rest up and be 100% come playoff time. Whether the Spurs finish second in the West or fifth, it really does not matter. Eventually they will have to beat LA without home court advantage, and having Manu and Tim at 100% when this match up occurs is, and should be, their number one priority.

My Email to a Houston Rockets Fan

So, your point guard situation now consists of Luther Head, Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry. And Tracy decided to tell ESPN about his season ending injury before his coach. And Yao is Yao and Ron Artest is a thug. Ladies and Gentlemen, Your 2009 Houston Rockets!

Vince Carter to the Spurs?

Rumor has it that the Spurs have been in contact with the New Jersey Nets concerning a trade that would send Vince to San Antonio for George Hill, Roger Mason, Fab Oberto, and Bruce Bowen. The thought is that the Nets would waive Fab and Bowen, and that they would resign with the Spurs after the mandatory 30 days. So in actuality, the Spurs would trade George Hill and Roger Mason for Vince Carter.

I think this is a horrible idea. As is, most would give the Spurs about a 20% chance of winning the championship. Quickly, the final four will most likely include the Spurs, Lakers, Celtics and Cavs. The Spurs, Lakers series will be very close, if both squads are fully healthy. If the Spurs can win that coin flip, I think they match up very well with the Cavs, and the Celtics would cause some problems. But again, I think it would be a coin flip scenario against the Celtics. So basically, the Spurs are right there with their current roster. Losing Roger Mason and George Hill would devastate the Spurs, long and short term, even if they get Vince in return. Enough cannot be said about Roger Mason’s confidence down the stretch. I have written about this previously, he is the ‘Big Shot’ guy that they Spurs sorely lacked last season. And George Hill is a huge upgrade over Jacque Vaughn. Hill does not just waste minutes to give Tony a rest, he hits critical shots and sustains the Spurs’ leads. If the Spurs trade Hill leaving Jacque to backup Tony, the Spurs will lose during those minutes.

All that being said, I cannot stand Vince Carter. He is one of the more notorious players in the league. Remember when he gave up on the Toronto Raptors? He admitted to quitting on his team. He admitted that he faked injuries and purposefully did not play hard when he was in the game. This guy should be banned from the NBA. So, why would the Spurs want to roll the dice on this nut job?

Well, the Spurs are in a position in which they could buy the championship this year, at the expense of the future. If the Spurs add one more piece, it is very conceivable that they will reach a level of play that cannot be matched by the Cavs, Celtics or Lakers. And that has to be extremely tempting. However, to lose Roger Mason and George Hill just as the Spurs are beginning to tap their potential would be criminal. Trading away Mason and Hill would be very comparable to what the Miami Heat did when they put together their team of washed up all stars that won in ’06, but have been miserable ever since. Basically, the deal with the devil consists of selling the Spurs' future for an immediate championship. Short term it’s great, long term I do not even want to think about it.

It seems that Houston is also speaking with the Nets. Please, let Houston trade for him. Apparently the Nets rejected an offer that included Tracy McGrady, good for them, but have come back with a proposal in which the Nets would acquire Ron Artest, Shane Battier, Luther Head and Carl Landry. Their counter seems a little steep, but as a Spurs fan, I really hope they take Vince off the trading block.

Kobe, Shaq….AWKWARD

Something very intriguing materialized during the All Star Weekend. The Shaq, Kobe dynamic was as entertaining as it was painful. It was like watching an early Office episode when Michael Scott made your skin crawl with his inappropriate behavior. You just felt uncomfortable with the whole situation, but you could not look away. You felt awkward and tense for Michael, just as you did for Shaq Sunday night.

TNT kept pairing the two together for interviews, which made it all the more painful. They kept prodding the open wound. During the third quarter, ridiculously dressed Craig Sager went down to the West’s bench and interviewed Shaq and Kobe. Kobe had a look on his face like he’d rather be anywhere else in the world. He seemed to be asking himself, “Why am I sitting next to Shaq?” over and over again. At one point, Shaq claimed there had never been bad blood between the two of them, to which I swear you can see Kobe roll his eyes.

Kobe and Shaq ended up winning the MVP award for the game, and so had to be interviewed together once again. This was truly spectacular. Kobe was asked if he could envision him and Shaq playing for the same team, and quicker than I can type the word, he responded with “No.” If you watch Shaq, the look on his face is priceless. It really sums up the night for Shaq. The whole game he seemed to be doing his best to impress Kobe, and Kobe continuously seemed to be saying, “No.”

I liken it to Elementary school kids that had a tree house. Shaq and Kobe were the two leaders of the group, and it worked well for a while. But then they got older and their personalities grew too strong for one tree house. So Kobe gets support from the club and kicks Shaq out. Well, years later in middle school, Shaq gets tired of his new friends and wants to go back to his old crew. So he starts trying to impress Kobe, jokes around with him, sucks up, smokes some cigs, but it’s not working. Kobe will not let Shaq back into the crew. And when this all plays out on national television, it’s as entertaining as any reality TV show airing.

San Antonio Spurs Statistics; Winning Trends

The question I was asked most on the 12th was, “What happened last night?” My response was, “The refs hurt us, the wrong guy took the last shot, but overall, sometimes you just don’t shoot well and you lose because of it.” I felt like people were looking for insight, and I handed them a John Madden quote. “If your team doesn’t score points, they are going to lose more often than not.” But I really felt like it was the best summary of the game. The Raptors did not play great defense. The Spurs got every shot they wanted, they just missed. And sometimes that happens. Anyway, this got me thinking about other stats that might be key to a game, other than FG%. I am a senior analyst for a food distribution company, so identifying trends is big part of what I do. I created an analytical spreadsheet that contains 2,993 cells in order to dissect the Spurs’ season thus far and to create a barometer for a Spurs game. Below are the trends that I have identified along with my thoughts. I will also note whether Wednesday's game against the Raptors followed the identified trend or broke it.

Field Goals

1. When the Spurs shoot less than 44.4% from the field, they are 5-12. When they shoot better than 44.4%, they are 30-4. When they shoot less than 39.4%, they are 0-8.

This basically was my response to the game. The Spurs shot 41.9% against the Raptors and lost. The cutoff for the Spurs is 40%. If the Spurs do not shoot better than 40%, it’s not looking good.
Trend: Followed

2. If the Spurs shoot worse than their opponent, 12-11.

This is noteworthy because I would expect this to be a worse record. So, if the Spurs shoot a worse field goal percentage, it’s basically a coin flip as to whether they win or not. Those are not bad odds considering.
Trend: Followed

3. Hold opponent to less than 44.7% FG, 18-4
Trend: Followed (The Raptors shot 44.9% from the field.)

4. The Spurs score more than 90 points, 32-5.

The stat that Spurs’ commentators love to bring up is that when the Spurs score 100 or more points, they are 32-0 dating back to last season. However, the more telling stat is what happens when the Spurs manage to score 90 or more; they are 32-5 this season. And 90 points is far more feasible for the Spurs than 100.

This is interesting in that last night, if the Spurs score 91 or more, the game either goes into overtime or is a win, just as the identified trend suggests.
Trend: Followed (Spurs 89, Raptors 91)

5. Opponents score fewer than 90 points, 16-2
Opponents score fewer than 100 points, 25-9
Opponents score more than 100 points, 10-7

Again, the most relevant stat is the one least talked about. 100 points is what should be in focus. It’s not difficult to keep a team from scoring fewer than 100 points, whereas 90 can be extremely challenging and does not happen with great frequency.
Trend: Broken

3 Point Shooting

1. When the Spurs shoot 40% or better from the three point line, they are 20-4. When they shoot less than 40%, they are 15-13.

If the Spurs are making their three pointers with consistency, they are a very difficult team to beat. If the opponent chooses to double Tim Duncan, he will find the open man for a three. And if they do not, Duncan will go to work on the block. It’s a conundrum for the opposing team. However, if the Spurs are missing their three pointers, the opposition is able to pack the paint with defenders. The lanes that Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili thrive on disappear and Tim Duncan will be double teamed constantly.
Trend: Followed

2. When opponents shoot 16 or more threes, 11-9

If an opponent shoots a lot of threes, it implies that the Spurs are struggling defensively. Most likely, opposing players are wreaking havoc in the paint, which forces the Spurs to play help defense and leave players open for three pointers.
Trend: Broken (But not by much. The Raptors took 15 threes, an ominous sign.

3. When the Spurs take between 18 and 23 threes, they are 18-5, else 17-11.

The Spurs seem to have a range for three point attempts. If they are not taking enough threes, their ball movement is probably struggling. And if they are taking too many threes, they probably are being too satisfied with the three pointer, and should drive to the basket more often. Against the Raptors, I thought our ball movement was poor. The Spurs only took 13 threes last night.
Trend: Followed

4. 13-11 when the opponent has a better 3 pt % than the Spurs. If the opponent makes more 3 pointers, 5-8

Clearly, three pointers are vital to the Spurs’ winning recipe. The Spurs are second in the league in 3 point shooting percentage. Matt Bonner is 2nd at 49% and Roger Mason is 7th at 45%. The Spurs rely on the three pointer to keep their opposition’s defense honest. When the Spurs have a bad shooting night from beyond the arc, they really have to work hard for every point.
Trend: Followed (Spurs shot 38.5%, Raptors shot 40%.)

Free Throws Matter

1. When the Spurs take 21 or more free throws, they are 21-3.

Free throws indicate aggression. If the Spurs are shooting a good number of free throws, it means that they were attacking the rim. While the Spurs rely on the three pointer, it is also important that they establish a presence in the paint. The Spurs are at their best when they are attacking the rim, as the 21-3 record indicates.
Trend: Followed (Spurs had 15 free throw attempts.)

Rebounds

1. When the Spurs have 33 or more defensive rebounds, they are 19-1.

Defensive rebounding is very important to the Spurs. They rebound 77.9% of their opposition’s missed shots; this ranks first in the NBA. When the Spurs are focused on the boards, they are 19-1.
Trend: Broken (Spurs had 37 rebounds; this was the one loss.)

2. If the Spurs tie or out rebound their opponent, 21-4
Trend: Broken (Spurs had 7 more boards than the Raptors.)

Assists

1. When the Spurs have 25 or more assists, 11-2.

Assists are the product of good ball movement. Good ball movement is the product of aggressive offensive play.
Trend: Followed (Spurs had 21 assists.)

2. When the opposition has more assists, 8-8
When the Spurs have more, 26-7
Trend: Broken

Steals and Blocks

1. Between 5 and 9 steals, 26-6. More than 9 steals, 1-3.

This surprised me. Steals and blocks, while they seem more lucky and random than anything, very much add up in victories and are lacking in defeats. Steals seem to have a range, just as three point attempts did. If the Spurs have a good amount of steals, it implies that the Spurs were playing sound, aggressive defense. However, when they have too many steals, it probably means that the Spurs were gambling on the defensive end too much, which is why their record is 1-3 when they have 9 or more steals.
Trend: Broken (The Spurs had 8 steals so this one was close. They did gamble a good amount, so that part of the analysis holds up. When the Spurs gamble, they force a good number of turnovers, but also give up easy baskets. This can be very dangerous against a sub-par team such as the Raptors. Every easy basket that the Raptors receive builds their confidence and allows them to establish a rhythm.)

2. When the Spurs have more than 5 team blocks, 15-3
When the Spurs have more blocks than their opposition, 19-4
When the opposition has more, 11-10

The blocks make sense. When the Spurs control the paint, and their help defense is on point, the result are team blocks. If Tim Duncan is blocking with regularity, opposing players will think twice before driving and if they do, will alter their shots to avoid getting blocked, reducing their FG%.
Trend: Followed

Personal Fouls and Turnovers

1. When the Spurs commit 18 or less fouls, 20-4.
When their opponents have 20 or more fouls, 20-4
When the Spurs commit more fouls than their opponents, 11-9
When the Spurs commit fewer fouls than their opponents, 22-5
Trend: Followed

2. When the opponent has more turnovers than the Spurs, 22-6
When the Spurs commit more turnovers than their opponents, 9-8
Trend: Broken (But close, Spurs 11, Raptors 12)

The fouls’ trend is interesting. If the Spurs foul a lot, they tend to lose the game. Fouling is a symptom of bad defense. Players tend to foul when they are in bad defensive position. If the help defense arrives late, the defender is still moving and a foul is called. If a wing defender closes out poorly, they reach to slow the offensive player and a foul is called. If a defensive player is out of position for a rebound, an over the back foul is called. When the Spurs play poor defensively, they lose.

I think the most interesting trends are ones that imply offensive aggressiveness and defensive soundness. When the Spurs draw fouls, shoot more threes, and shoot more free throws, they tend to win. When the Spurs out-rebound, out-block, and out-steal their opponent, they win. Three point shooting is also critical to the Spurs. The stats show that when our three point percentage is high, and we take a good amount of threes, we win the vast majority of the games. Next time the Spurs play, compare these bench marks with the halftime stats and you should get a good indication of how the Spurs are playing on both ends of the floor, and whether or not the Spurs have a good chance of winning.

Against the Raptors, 11 of the trends I identified were consistent with defeat, while 6 were not. It’s interesting because it was such a close game if you just look at the score, 89-91. However, once the stats are broken down, 11-6 is not very close. The Spurs were lucky to only lose by 2 points.

Hold'em at the Wynn

3:15am; The Wynn
I find the poker room and sit down at a $1, $2 No Limit Table, $300 buyin. At this point, I’m definitely feeling the buzz but not tired or miserable. So I convince myself that I’m not breaking Bill Simmons rule of “No DTM gambling (any gambling after 2am when you’re Drunk, Tired, and Miserable.)” I end up playing from 3:15am till 10:00am without a break. I’d say around 9:15am, I entered the DTM range. But I kept playing till I lost all of my chips. The seven hours of gambling really came down to 4 crucial hands. The first doubled my stack from $400 to $800. The last three had me lose my $800 and the $200 I had re-bought in for.

4:45am
The Big Hand I won: My Stack = $400
In position, I received a AD 10C and called the big blind. The small blind with a $200 stack called and the big blind with a $400 stack checked. The flop came up AH 5C 4C. I led with an aggressive bet of $20, given the pot was only $6. The small blind immediately folds and the big blind sits for a minute to think it over. As soon as I see him hesitate, I immediately put him on a draw, as in he either is looking for the third club or has a straight possibility. He ends up calling and the turn is a JD. The pot now has $46 and I think he missed his flush/straight. I want to either win the pot right now or make him seriously pay for the river card. I bet $75. He immediately calls. The fact that he quickly called tells me that he does not think he has this hand won. The call, as opposed to a raise, implies that he wants to see the river card, so it further confirms my thought that he is on the draw. The river comes and it’s a blank, 9D. I’m convinced that he missed his draw, but my fear is that if I do not bet enough, he may come over the top of me in an attempt to bluff me off the pot. The pot is now a respectable $196, which leaves me with about $300. I bet $100, which means that if he wants to bluff me he’ll have to go all in. Because if he raises by $100, pot odds will force me to call. If he missed his draw there’s no way he goes all in.

Well, he goes all in. Now I have a fairly difficult decision. The pot is $600, and I have $200 to call. I’m getting 3-1 odds on my money, but throw the math out, this is about feel. I was pretty sure this entire time that he was on a draw. His bets and hesitations all signaled a draw. The only thing that didn’t was his last bet, which means it has high bluff potential. However, what if he was sitting on pocket 9’s? Would he have bet them any differently? The hesitation on the initial bet would make sense, because the ace is a scary card and he would have to decide whether I have an ace or not. The second bet is suspect. The Jack hits, which is yet another card that could beat him. He did not hesitate to call my second bet, so the Jack didn’t scare him. Hmm, I make my decision and push all in. Immediately, his calm face changes into a pained expression and I know the pot is mine. He turns over 6D 7C, which made me feel great. He was on the draw. The affable fat guy next to me yells, “Holy sh*t! My balls are definitely not that big!” The dealer gives him a dirty look and the affable fat guy says, “What? Balls isn’t a swear word.” “I think you said sh*t.” “F*** it.” I really wanted to bust out the Sam Cassel ball dance, but self-control got the better of me.
Well unfortunately, this was my high point. I end up losing three big hands after, two of which I had three of a kind with a weaker kicker than my opponent, and the final big hand I lost I called an all-in bet with JJ, he had 10 10, Of course, a 10 hit the flop.

Spurs Beat the Best, Spurring Recent Confidence Surge

The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season, and it’s because of their two convincing wins against the Lakers and the Celtics. Beating these two teams that are constantly referred to as the best in the league proved to the Spurs that they are capable of going all the way this year. Popovich has been quoted saying that the Spurs are one or two pieces away from the Laker’s level. Popovich always puts his team down, in order to fire them up. These recent two wins filled the Spurs with confidence, which overflowed onto the New Jersey Nets last night.

ESPN analysts have made excuses for the Lakers and Celtics. For the Lakers, they were on the second game of a back to back and were missing several bench players. For the Celtics, they were emotionally distraught from the loss to the Lakers two games before the Spurs beat them. Forget about these excuses for a moment as we examine these games. I will attempt to prove that both teams played as close to perfect in these games as possible, and the Spurs still beat them. I wrote about the Spurs winning the vast majority of close games this season. If the Spurs can keep a game close, they win most of the time. The Spurs are adept to getting stops in the closing minutes, and executing flawlessly for critical scores.

First, let us take a look at the Spurs 112-111 victory over the Lakers. The Lakers shot 57% from the field and 56% from three point land while committing only 11 turnovers. Because their bench was unavailable, the Lakers were forced to play their starters playoff minutes. This is greatly responsible for their absurd shooting percentages. Kobe played 42 minutes, Fisher 36, Bynum 35, Gasol 32, and Odom 29. One could argue that the Lakers must have been fatigued in the fourth, and that is why they came up short. However, I was present at this game and let me tell you, the Lakers did not slow down at all. They were playing top notch all the way down the stretch. Basically, two of the NBA’s top teams played at an extremely elite level for 48 minutes, and the Spurs came out on top due to their superior play in the closing minutes.

Now for the recent 105-99 victory over the Defending Champion Boston Celtics in the Garden. In this game, the Celtics shot 51% from the field with 11 turnovers. The Celtics made 3 three pointers, but only took 11 so the 27% shooting looks worse than it was. The Spurs did a fantastic job of chasing the Celtics off the three point line. The Celtics clearly wanted to win this game, as was shown by Doc River’s choice to not play the bench. Tony Allen, at 18 minutes, was the only bench player to play more than 13 minutes. The five Boston starters all played 34 minutes or more. The Spurs matched the Celtics’ elite play and the game came down to the wire. The Spurs are great at finishing close games and came out victorious with a key shot by Roger Mason and a great defensive play by Bruce Bowen and Manu Ginobili.

Two of the best teams in the NBA played arguably as well as possible and the Spurs took the punches and won in the closing minutes. These two games have injected the Spurs with confidence and look for them to build a decent win streak in the coming weeks. The only upcoming game that makes me nervous is the game against Cleveland on the 27th. However, the Spurs match up very well with Cleveland and if the Spurs recent play is any indication, Cleveland better show up ready for a battle.

Barring Review, a Bar Review – Faulker’s Pub

I recently moved from the Northwest side of San Antonio to the Northeast side. As I was perusing the neighborhood, getting acquainted with my new surroundings, I stumbled upon Faulker's Pub. My girlfriend and I spent Friday and Saturday investigating.

Faulker's Pub is only a few months old, and when one walks into the bar, its age is very evident. The bar is clean and attractive, with a neighborhood feel to it. The Pub does not permit smoking inside, but has a patio to compensate the smoking community. This serves to keep the bar affable to the nonsmokers. The drinks are moderately priced and the bartenders are extremely friendly. When I told the bartend that we were new to the neighborhood, he immediately offered two free shots. The clientele consists of a slightly older group mixed with young adults. I estimate the average age to be around 30, although there were a decent number of 22-25 year olds present both nights. The Pub offers a Super Search JukeBox, two Bar Gaming units, two modern electronic dartboards, and a pool table to help pass the time. The Pub's maximum capacity is 76, obviously a smaller bar, but the mood it exudes is quaint and modern. On Wednesday nights the Pub offers live entertaiment as an acoustic guitar performer covers any song the crowd wishes. Overall, Faulker's is a great place to imbibe with a few friends.

Drink Cost: Cheap to Moderate

Clientle: Friendly

Sketchiness Factor: Low

Cleanliness: Spotless

Staff: Friendly

Grade: A-

Spurs, Celtics Reaction: Roger Mason Jr. is Clutch

In my previous post, I made the argument that the Spurs are much improved from last year because of the additions of Matt Bonner, George Hill, and Roger Mason Jr. I think the victory over the Celtics proved my point. In this game, Matt Bonner scored 23 points and grabbed 8 rebounds, George Hill scored all seven of his points at a critical juncture of the game, and Roger Mason hit yet another game winning shot on national television.

As I wrote, Matt Bonner is an excellent complement to Tim Duncan because Bonner can spread the floor with his shooting ability. When Bonner is playing the 4 position, Tim Duncan can sit on the block surrounded by 4 great shooters. This makes it very difficult on the opponent. If they double Tim Duncan, the Spurs will get a wide open shot, and if they do not Tim Duncan will go to work. Bonner is also adept at catching the ball, giving a fake, and driving into the lane for an easier look. This move confounds teams because now it’s not enough to just chase Bonner off the three point line, they must close out on him knowing that if they are overaggressive, Bonner will drive right by.

Looking at the stat sheet, it might appear that George Hill did not have an impact on the game. However, this is far from the case. In previous years, if Tony Parker had a bad game, there would be no way that the Spurs could pull out a victory. Our backup point guards were used to buy some rest for Tony Parker, rather than help to build a lead. George Hill is different. With 2:47 remaining in the third, George Hill entered the game for Tony Parker. At this point, the Spurs had foiled their halftime lead of 8 points and were struggling with the momentum of the game; the score was 74-72. George Hill played so well that Popovich chose to ride him deep into the fourth. From the 10:08 minute mark to the 8:36 mark in the fourth, George Hill scored 7 points and grabbed one rebound. Tony Parker is finally put in to replace Hill with 5 minutes remaining, at which point the Spurs were up 87-83. I would argue that the minutes that Hill played were the most critical of the game. If the Spurs had gone down by 10, which easily could have happened, the Spurs lose and Tim, Tony and Manu probably do not get off the bench in the fourth. George Hill changed the momentum when he took that hard hit from Big “Fat” Baby, which served to wake the Spurs up.

Roger Mason Jr. has no conscience. He doesn’t. With 20 seconds remaining, down by one, you run a play in which Tim, Tony, or Manu can drive to the basket to draw contact. You do not take an off-balance three point shot. That is, unless you are Roger Mason Jr. We’ve seen this before. Against Phoenix and then LA, the guy likes the big shot. He is reminiscent of a loose cannon that the Spurs employed during the ‘02/’03 championship campaign. Does he not remind you of Stephen Jackson? Jackson was our big shot guy back then. When everyone else appeared nervous, Jackson wanted the ball to jack up a shot, and he definitely did that. He saved the ’03 season on many occasions with his fourth quarter heroics. In ’05, Robert Horry was our big shot guy. Obviously, he loved that time of the year when he could come in and single-handedly win big games. And let us not forget about Steve Kerr. In ’99, he and Sean Elliot took the big shots. The Spurs were missing that big shot guy last year. The guy that everyone forgets about until it is too late. Manu is too well respected to fill that role. Everyone sees Manu coming a mile away; they do not see Roger Mason. Opponents concentrate on Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker at critical moments, as they should. But this is when Roger Mason Jr. flourishes. Every championship season we have had a guy with ice running through his veins. A guy who wants the big shot, takes the big shot, and consistently makes the big shot. This year, Roger Mason Jr. is that guy.

The Andrew Bynum Impact

The general thought given by ESPN analysts is that the loss of Bynum hurts the Lakers’ chances of winning a championship, but does not affect their odds of winning the West. Most analysts agree that the Spurs are the second best team in the West, but still are no match for the Lakers, even a Bynum-less Lakers. The logic is that the Lakers beat the Spurs in five games last year without Bynum. If all things were equal, great argument. However, they are not.

Last year, Manu Ginobili was hobbled by the time we faced the Lakers. It was obvious and acknowledged, so I will not waste time making that case. In last year’s playoffs, Manu Ginobili averaged 23.1 ppg in wins and 11.9 ppg in losses. You could say he was the Spurs’ barometer. When he played well, we won, and when he did not, we lost. Well, against the Lakers, Manu Ginobili was playing hurt. So, those that argue “The Lakers beat the Spurs in 5 games without Bynum, so they will have no trouble without Bynum this year,” would only be correct if Manu Ginobili is hurt during the playoffs and the Spurs had the same exact team as last year. However, this is not the case.

The Spurs vastly improved their team over the off-season. I would argue that the Spurs of ’09 would beat the Spurs of ’08 by 15 points. It’s that big of a difference. The upgrades that the Spurs have made are greatly overlooked, so I will shed some light on them.

Tim Duncan showed up this season in incredible shape. The rumor is that he knew he’d have to carry the load with Manu out due to surgery, so he worked out harder during the off-season than he ever has. He apparently used boxing training techniques and was even throwing tires to improve his physique. The payoff was obvious. Over the first 20 games, Tim Duncan single-handedly carried the Spurs and probably saved the season. How he is constantly overlooked in the MVP discussion is beyond me.

Tony Parker showed up playing the best basketball of his career. His ankle injury set him back, but he still is having a career year in points and assists; and he added the three point shot to his repertoire. No one has really addressed this, but I expect him to hit a few big threes in the playoffs when teams attempt to pack the paint. Tony Parker has made 12 of 33 three pointers this season for a respectable 36%. Previous years, he only took the three pointer if the shot clock gave him no other option. This year, if he is wide open, he is taking the shot rather than taking a dribble for a closer one.

Because of the off-season ankle surgery, Manu Ginobili was forced to take more time off than he has in his entire career. Normally, basketball does not stop for this guy. There is no off-season for Manu Ginobili. When he’s not playing for the Spurs, he is on the court representing his country, Argentina. So Manu is more rested than ever. Now that he is getting his game shape and rhythm back, his freshness is evident.

The Big Three are impressive, but the biggest improvement resides with the rest of the team. The additions of Matt Bonner, George Hill and Roger Mason cannot be overstated, although I’ll give it a shot. I consider Matt Bonner an addition even though he’s been on the squad for two years because he clearly is a different player this season. He is basically a poor man’s Robert Horry, or a rich man’s Robert Horry if you are talking about the ‘07/’08 Horry. Matt Bonner can hit the three, rebound, and is a competent defender. He is a great compliment to Tim Duncan because of Bonner’s ability to spread the floor with his shooting ability. George Hill is the Spurs most competent backup point guard in recent memory. Our recent backup point guards have included Jacque “Turnover, Wide Open Missed Shot, Airballed Layup” Vaughn, Beno “No Confidence” Udrih, Nick “Two Feet in the Grave” Van Exel, and Jason “White Guy Ups” Hart. Ouch. George “Freakishly Long Arms” Hill was the steal of the draft. He is an excellent defender, competent shooter, and fearless driver. We lose very little when he enters the game to give Tony Parker a rest. And finally, Roger Mason gives us an offensive weapon that we have previously lacked. In past seasons, Bruce Bowen was our starter. While Bruce is a superb defender, his offensive limitations were obvious. Bruce Bowen’s only offensive contribution is the wide open three pointer from the corner that he can hit with consistency. He is a miserable free throw shooter, and struggles with every shot aside from the wide-open corner three. Roger Mason, on the other hand, is an underrated defender and excellent offensive weapon. He can knock the three down from anywhere on the court, can hit his jumper off the dribble, is not afraid of driving, and is an excellent free throw shooter. In addition, he has the innate ability to knock down the big shot. Roger Mason Jr. is fearless in his clutchness. (Yes, I made up a word.) Twice this season he has hit the game winner against the best in the NBA on national television. Suffice it to say, the Spurs’ additions have vastly improved the team.

Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka, Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto are all competent role players. Obviously, age has slowed them down. But all that is asked from them is 15 competitive minutes a game, which they are obviously capable of delivering.

So, whenever you hear a guy on ESPN talk about the Lakers as if they are already in the Finals, just remember that their logic is flawed. The Spurs are for real this year. And if nothing else, Lady Luck will be on our side, as it is an odd year.

Hate, Love Gregg Popovich

At 7:55pm I switched the channel to the Spurs, Nuggets game. I was finishing up a game of Madden, so I was not really paying attention. But as I was running my favorite edited version of the “Four Verticals” play, I thought I heard the commentator say that Manu was not going to play. I quickly paused the game and rewound the TV. Sure enough, Popovich decided to sit Manu because of a contusion he suffered the night before against Golden State. This was upsetting, but it’s always better to give Manu a rest after a game like the one against the Warriors. Manu continuously sacrificed his body in that game and it was understandable that he might need the next night off.

So, I continued playing Madden. I’m a big fan of running the hurry up offense throughout the entire game. I enjoy it because my opponent tends to get frustrated, and then takes chances, which is when I can go for the big play. Still not paying attention to the TV, I thought I heard him say that Michael Finley, Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker would sit this one out. I thought I must have misheard. Unfortunately, that was not the case. Our next game is Sunday at Boston, obviously a huge game. But that’s in 4 days. 4 days of rest in unheard of in the regular season. In fact, after that long of a break teams tend to come back a little rusty. So why would we sit four of our starters seemingly needlessly. I was irate. The Xbox controller may have been chucked across the room. Clearly, this is the “Hate Popovich” section.

After the game, I began to think through what went on, and I made some sense of it. Basketball players are generally superstitious. I remember in my all-state days, I became very superstitious. Previously, I thought it was silly. But in a game where the bounce of the ball can be the difference between a win and a loss, advancing in the playoffs and going home, superstition because important. Confidence in basketball is vital. Even the bench players on the team think they are God’s gift. They should be the one’s starting. It’s just the way a basketball player’s mind has to be wired. If there is any doubt in your mind, you will miss, you will get beaten up, you will get benched. Superstitions serve to strengthen confidence, falsely or not. One game I forgot to bring my right socks with me on the road. It completely affected my game. Maybe it was a subconscious thing, but it had a dramatic affect on the way I played that night.

What happens when you are at a blackjack table, there is a dealer change, and the momentum swings? Suddenly, you are losing every hand and getting more 15’s and 16’s than R Kelly. Superstitious players will immediately get up, and find the dealer that they were winning with. I would argue that Popovich saw the NBA’s momentum change, did not like it, and decided to cash out. Andrew Bynum, Jameer Nelson, Chris Paul, and Chauncey Billups have all sustained injuries in the past 3 days. Were they fluky injuries? Yes, but why take the chance? Clearly, the Spurs were forced to overextend themselves in the game against the Warriors. In the second game of back to backs, injuries are more likely. The players are fatigued and not as quick as normal. Their legs are sore, they are jet lagged, if the Spurs were going to sustain an injury it would have been last night. Chauncey turned his ankle in the first half. Are we not extremely grateful that it was not Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili that stepped on a foot? Also, this move is a complete slap in the face to the Denver Nuggets. Popovich is basically saying, "You know what, I know your record is good and everything, but we own you in the playoffs. Here, take this game. Your team isn't even worth showing up for." I think the decision to bench our players was interesting. And as a superstitious basketball fan, it makes me laugh.

Kobe's 61 Really not that Impressive

So, Kobe scores 61 against the Knicks. I respond with, “So what?”

First, the Knicks are a terrible defensive team. Coach Mike D’Antoni’s system of seven seconds or less turns a blind eye to defense. We saw it in Phoenix, and now we see it at New York. 61 against a team like the Spurs would be incredible, but it’s not going to happen because the Spurs play defense. When Kobe gets hot against the Spurs, Bruce Bowen is immediately brought in to the game to face guard Kobe. If Kobe manages to free himself long enough to receive a pass, a double team is immediately thrown his way to force him to pass the ball. Players do not score ridiculous amounts of points on teams that care about defense.

According to Basketball Reference, the Knicks’ defensive rating ranks 22nd out of the 30 teams in the league. In addition, the Knicks' pace is second in the league. In other words, the Knicks play an extremely fast game, 7 seconds or less, and play horrible defense. Is it really that hard to imagine a player of Kobe’s stature scoring 61 points against that defense? Of course not.

"We tried to do the rope-a-dope a little bit where he might shoot himself out, but he didn't. He just kept on going."
-- Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni

Are you serious? You tried to let Kobe shoot himself out? What does that even mean? If a player is hot, you force him to pass the ball. You definitely do not allow him to drop 61 points. Did no one learn from Lebron’s fourth quarter against Detroit last year? This is truly flabbergasting. Kobe should send D’Antoni some flowers for Valentine’s day. He should take him out to a nice dinner. Maybe they could have a few drinks at Kobe’s place and then Kobe could ask him to bend over a chair and….
Yeah, next time, how about you triple team Kobe, throw a box and 1 at him, have Nate Robinson face guard Kobe and as soon as a pass is made have a two defenders running at him. I mean, do anything aside from allowing one of the best players in the league to “shoot himself out.” Alright, I’m done.

Spurs, Nuggets Preview

Clearly, the Spurs will feel a bit of fatigue in tonight’s game. The Spurs beat the Warriors last night in overtime, and subsequently jumped on a plane to Denver. In order to secure the win, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker played 42 and 43 minutes, respectively. The Nuggets last played on Friday, so they will be very well rested. Carmelo Anthony returned from injury in their last game to score 19 points in 30 minutes. The rust was evident in the 5 turnovers he committed, but he looked fresh and healthy.

The Nuggets are a team that does not match up well with the Spurs. Tim Duncan generally has his way with the Nuggets defenders. Nene is slow and undersized, while Chris “Birdman” Anderson needs to hit a weight room. In addition, they lack a defensive stopper to handle Manu Ginobili. JR Smith will come off the bench for Denver but see substantial minutes. While he is a very skilled offensive player, he lacks the passion for defense. Since both Ginobili and Smith will come off the bench, it is likely that they will guard one another. Ginobili should win this match up as he is skilled both offensively and defensively.

The advantage that the Nuggets have over the Spurs resides in their newly acquired point guard, Chancey Billups. Though Tony Parker has much improved his game when facing the bigger, stronger point guards of the league, they still pose problems. Also, surprisingly Tony shows fatigue in the tail end of back to backs, even though he is relatively young. I think this will be the critical match up of the game. If Tony can neutralize the Chancey affect, the Spurs should roll. But if Tony looks fatigued and is dominated, it could be a long night. Bottom line, Spurs by 8.

Bad Memories Super Bowl XLIII

After watching Arizona give away the Super Bowl to Pittsburgh, I could not help but feel for the five or six Cardinals fans out there. With 10 seconds left, Kurt Warner goes back to launch a Hail Marry, is hit, and loses the ball. The referees rule it a fumble and the Steelers immediately down the ball, game over. Was it a fumble? Was it an incomplete pass? Doesn’t matter, the “right” team won. How did the referees review every questionable play, and there were a lot of them, except the one that decided the game? Unfortunately, to beat the team that ‘should win,’ a smaller market team cannot leave anything to chance.

Game 5, Western Conference Finals, Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs, May 13, 2004
.4 seconds remaining, Tim Duncan just hit an unbelievable shot with lots of contact but no call to put the Spurs up 73-72. The Lakers call a timeout to advance the ball. Gary Payton is throwing the ball in. The Spurs do a good job of covering Shaq and Kobe, but Derek Fisher streaks free. Gary passes the ball, Derek catches it running away from the basket, turns his body towards the hoop, jumps backwards and sinks the shot. Clearly, there is no way he was able to catch, contort, jump, and shoot in .4 seconds. But the game clock did not start on time, it went in, and the “right” team won. I maintain that if a smaller market team wins by 5, it means that they were 10-15 points better that night. The refs will influence the game so that the bigger market team will gain 5-10 points through missed calls and bad calls. As a Spurs fan, I’ve witnessed it over and over again. I have come to accept it. If you are going after the champ, you better knock him out, because if you don’t the score cards are not going to be in your favor. So, to the five or six Cardinal fans out there, this Spurs fan feels your pain.