San Antonio Spurs Statistics; Winning Trends

The question I was asked most on the 12th was, “What happened last night?” My response was, “The refs hurt us, the wrong guy took the last shot, but overall, sometimes you just don’t shoot well and you lose because of it.” I felt like people were looking for insight, and I handed them a John Madden quote. “If your team doesn’t score points, they are going to lose more often than not.” But I really felt like it was the best summary of the game. The Raptors did not play great defense. The Spurs got every shot they wanted, they just missed. And sometimes that happens. Anyway, this got me thinking about other stats that might be key to a game, other than FG%. I am a senior analyst for a food distribution company, so identifying trends is big part of what I do. I created an analytical spreadsheet that contains 2,993 cells in order to dissect the Spurs’ season thus far and to create a barometer for a Spurs game. Below are the trends that I have identified along with my thoughts. I will also note whether Wednesday's game against the Raptors followed the identified trend or broke it.

Field Goals

1. When the Spurs shoot less than 44.4% from the field, they are 5-12. When they shoot better than 44.4%, they are 30-4. When they shoot less than 39.4%, they are 0-8.

This basically was my response to the game. The Spurs shot 41.9% against the Raptors and lost. The cutoff for the Spurs is 40%. If the Spurs do not shoot better than 40%, it’s not looking good.
Trend: Followed

2. If the Spurs shoot worse than their opponent, 12-11.

This is noteworthy because I would expect this to be a worse record. So, if the Spurs shoot a worse field goal percentage, it’s basically a coin flip as to whether they win or not. Those are not bad odds considering.
Trend: Followed

3. Hold opponent to less than 44.7% FG, 18-4
Trend: Followed (The Raptors shot 44.9% from the field.)

4. The Spurs score more than 90 points, 32-5.

The stat that Spurs’ commentators love to bring up is that when the Spurs score 100 or more points, they are 32-0 dating back to last season. However, the more telling stat is what happens when the Spurs manage to score 90 or more; they are 32-5 this season. And 90 points is far more feasible for the Spurs than 100.

This is interesting in that last night, if the Spurs score 91 or more, the game either goes into overtime or is a win, just as the identified trend suggests.
Trend: Followed (Spurs 89, Raptors 91)

5. Opponents score fewer than 90 points, 16-2
Opponents score fewer than 100 points, 25-9
Opponents score more than 100 points, 10-7

Again, the most relevant stat is the one least talked about. 100 points is what should be in focus. It’s not difficult to keep a team from scoring fewer than 100 points, whereas 90 can be extremely challenging and does not happen with great frequency.
Trend: Broken

3 Point Shooting

1. When the Spurs shoot 40% or better from the three point line, they are 20-4. When they shoot less than 40%, they are 15-13.

If the Spurs are making their three pointers with consistency, they are a very difficult team to beat. If the opponent chooses to double Tim Duncan, he will find the open man for a three. And if they do not, Duncan will go to work on the block. It’s a conundrum for the opposing team. However, if the Spurs are missing their three pointers, the opposition is able to pack the paint with defenders. The lanes that Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili thrive on disappear and Tim Duncan will be double teamed constantly.
Trend: Followed

2. When opponents shoot 16 or more threes, 11-9

If an opponent shoots a lot of threes, it implies that the Spurs are struggling defensively. Most likely, opposing players are wreaking havoc in the paint, which forces the Spurs to play help defense and leave players open for three pointers.
Trend: Broken (But not by much. The Raptors took 15 threes, an ominous sign.

3. When the Spurs take between 18 and 23 threes, they are 18-5, else 17-11.

The Spurs seem to have a range for three point attempts. If they are not taking enough threes, their ball movement is probably struggling. And if they are taking too many threes, they probably are being too satisfied with the three pointer, and should drive to the basket more often. Against the Raptors, I thought our ball movement was poor. The Spurs only took 13 threes last night.
Trend: Followed

4. 13-11 when the opponent has a better 3 pt % than the Spurs. If the opponent makes more 3 pointers, 5-8

Clearly, three pointers are vital to the Spurs’ winning recipe. The Spurs are second in the league in 3 point shooting percentage. Matt Bonner is 2nd at 49% and Roger Mason is 7th at 45%. The Spurs rely on the three pointer to keep their opposition’s defense honest. When the Spurs have a bad shooting night from beyond the arc, they really have to work hard for every point.
Trend: Followed (Spurs shot 38.5%, Raptors shot 40%.)

Free Throws Matter

1. When the Spurs take 21 or more free throws, they are 21-3.

Free throws indicate aggression. If the Spurs are shooting a good number of free throws, it means that they were attacking the rim. While the Spurs rely on the three pointer, it is also important that they establish a presence in the paint. The Spurs are at their best when they are attacking the rim, as the 21-3 record indicates.
Trend: Followed (Spurs had 15 free throw attempts.)

Rebounds

1. When the Spurs have 33 or more defensive rebounds, they are 19-1.

Defensive rebounding is very important to the Spurs. They rebound 77.9% of their opposition’s missed shots; this ranks first in the NBA. When the Spurs are focused on the boards, they are 19-1.
Trend: Broken (Spurs had 37 rebounds; this was the one loss.)

2. If the Spurs tie or out rebound their opponent, 21-4
Trend: Broken (Spurs had 7 more boards than the Raptors.)

Assists

1. When the Spurs have 25 or more assists, 11-2.

Assists are the product of good ball movement. Good ball movement is the product of aggressive offensive play.
Trend: Followed (Spurs had 21 assists.)

2. When the opposition has more assists, 8-8
When the Spurs have more, 26-7
Trend: Broken

Steals and Blocks

1. Between 5 and 9 steals, 26-6. More than 9 steals, 1-3.

This surprised me. Steals and blocks, while they seem more lucky and random than anything, very much add up in victories and are lacking in defeats. Steals seem to have a range, just as three point attempts did. If the Spurs have a good amount of steals, it implies that the Spurs were playing sound, aggressive defense. However, when they have too many steals, it probably means that the Spurs were gambling on the defensive end too much, which is why their record is 1-3 when they have 9 or more steals.
Trend: Broken (The Spurs had 8 steals so this one was close. They did gamble a good amount, so that part of the analysis holds up. When the Spurs gamble, they force a good number of turnovers, but also give up easy baskets. This can be very dangerous against a sub-par team such as the Raptors. Every easy basket that the Raptors receive builds their confidence and allows them to establish a rhythm.)

2. When the Spurs have more than 5 team blocks, 15-3
When the Spurs have more blocks than their opposition, 19-4
When the opposition has more, 11-10

The blocks make sense. When the Spurs control the paint, and their help defense is on point, the result are team blocks. If Tim Duncan is blocking with regularity, opposing players will think twice before driving and if they do, will alter their shots to avoid getting blocked, reducing their FG%.
Trend: Followed

Personal Fouls and Turnovers

1. When the Spurs commit 18 or less fouls, 20-4.
When their opponents have 20 or more fouls, 20-4
When the Spurs commit more fouls than their opponents, 11-9
When the Spurs commit fewer fouls than their opponents, 22-5
Trend: Followed

2. When the opponent has more turnovers than the Spurs, 22-6
When the Spurs commit more turnovers than their opponents, 9-8
Trend: Broken (But close, Spurs 11, Raptors 12)

The fouls’ trend is interesting. If the Spurs foul a lot, they tend to lose the game. Fouling is a symptom of bad defense. Players tend to foul when they are in bad defensive position. If the help defense arrives late, the defender is still moving and a foul is called. If a wing defender closes out poorly, they reach to slow the offensive player and a foul is called. If a defensive player is out of position for a rebound, an over the back foul is called. When the Spurs play poor defensively, they lose.

I think the most interesting trends are ones that imply offensive aggressiveness and defensive soundness. When the Spurs draw fouls, shoot more threes, and shoot more free throws, they tend to win. When the Spurs out-rebound, out-block, and out-steal their opponent, they win. Three point shooting is also critical to the Spurs. The stats show that when our three point percentage is high, and we take a good amount of threes, we win the vast majority of the games. Next time the Spurs play, compare these bench marks with the halftime stats and you should get a good indication of how the Spurs are playing on both ends of the floor, and whether or not the Spurs have a good chance of winning.

Against the Raptors, 11 of the trends I identified were consistent with defeat, while 6 were not. It’s interesting because it was such a close game if you just look at the score, 89-91. However, once the stats are broken down, 11-6 is not very close. The Spurs were lucky to only lose by 2 points.