Optimistic Spurs Outlook

I realize my last few posts have been fairly pessimistic. Most of it was skewed by my emotions following the recent upsetting losses. I thought I should make it known that I expect the Spurs to finish the rest of the season 6-2 and make a run at the championship. At first glance, this might seem uber-optimistic considering that five of the remaining eight games are on the road, and four of the remaining eight are against playoff teams. However, if one takes a closer look at the Spurs’ rough month of March, there is reason for optimism.

The Spurs record for March was 9-8. It looks bad until one realizes that seven of the eight losses were by 7 or fewer points, five were by fewer than 4 points. Clearly, many of these games could have gone either way. If the ball had taken a different bounce, if the officiating had been slightly less than horrific, if Popovich had not played Jacque Vaughn, many of these games would have been wins.

The opponents that the Spurs lost to were respectable, for the most part. The only “bad” losses occurred against the Oklahoma City Thunder, to which the Spurs dropped two games. The rest of their losses were to playoff teams.

The Spurs were playing with incomplete lineups for the majority of the month. Tim Duncan sat out for most of the back to backs and missed a string of games due to knee soreness. Manu Ginobili only played in the last three games averaging only 25 minutes per, and as expected struggled to shake the rust off.

These reasons serve to explain why the Spurs were out of sync in March. In my eyes, these untimely injuries resulted in the Spurs woeful three point shooting slump. March was the Spurs worst three point shooting month of the season at 37.1%. In their eight losses, the Spurs shot a putrid 32%. Given how close these games were, if the Spurs shot 35% suddenly they are viewed in a completely different light. Instead of, “The Spurs Limp into the Playoffs,” headlines would read “The Spurs Sprint Towards the Finish Line.” It’s interesting how a single percent can completely shift the public’s perception of a team.

Injuries kept the Spurs from developing a rhythm during the month of March. Players were attempting to get Drew Gooden acclimated while not knowing which of the Big Three may be playing in the next game. The Spurs ball movement became less fluid and the league’s leading three point shooting team struggled to connect from range.

All this can be turned around within a week. If the Spurs can take a step back and play through this rough patch, they will regain form and steady the ship. I am hoping that this last week was enough for the Spurs to find themselves. So, I am still optimistic that the Spurs can make a run at the title this year. Everyone seems to forget the most important factor heading into the playoffs; it’s an odd year, and the Spurs own odd years like they own the Suns.