48 Minutes of Hell = 3 Minutes in Purgatory

In a recent article published by 48 Minutes of Hell, Timothy Varner argues that the Spurs are not as good as their record indicates because the they were 21st in field goal defense and first in PPG allowed. He ties these two stats together to conclude that the Spurs are not solid defensively and are lucky to have the record that they do.

My main issue with this article is that it is pessimistic. 48 Minutes of Hell was recently chosen by ESPN as its local Spurs blog. (ESPN is selecting local blogs that focus on a single team so readers can enjoy more articles about their favorite NBA teams.) If I wanted to read something pessimistic about the Spurs, I would simply read what the ESPN analysts have to say. Shouldn’t a local blog about the Spurs be optimistic? It’s the first rule of writing; know you audience.

In addition, this article is inaccurate. The Spurs were without two of their three best players for long stretches early in the season. During this time, the Spurs lost a lot of games that they would have won if Tony and Manu had been healthy. So, in fact, the Spurs' record is actually understated.

Furthermore, with Tony and Manu out, of course the Spurs played worse on both ends of the floor and slowed the game down. I would argue that the games that Manu and Tony missed have skewed the data. This is why the Spurs were 21st in opposing field goal percentage and first in PPG. They slowed the game down and were playing with an inferior lineup. If Timothy Varner wanted to use accurate stats, he should have thrown out the games that Manu and Tony did not suit up for. He also should have thrown out the second game of back to backs, since there are no back to backs in the playoffs. And if he wanted to skew the data in the other direction, he should have ignored the first several games that Manu and Tony played in, since they were not playing their normal minutes and were rusty from the time off.

The article also references quotes from Popovich after a game in which they played poorly. Popovich tells the Spurs off at least once a year. It’s cyclical, seasonal, you could set your watch by it. He does this to fire up the team and get them to concentrate harder on the defensive end of the floor. It’s definitely not a reason to sound the alarm or something that should be used to support an argument.

So, why didn’t 48 minutes of Hell think of this? Maybe it’s because the author really doesn’t follow the Spurs all that closely.