Spurs, Suns Preview: Flip a Coin

Games against the Suns always make me nervous. Dating back to the ‘06/’07 season, the Spurs have played the Suns 20 times, including the two times they met in the playoffs. The Spurs have won 12 of these contests and lost 8. In victories, the Spurs won by an average of 5.6 points. In defeats, the Spurs have lost by an average of 11.9 points. So basically, it’s either a nail biter or the Spurs lose. Of the past 20 meetings, 14 have been decided by 7 points or less.

This year, the Suns match up well with the Spurs. In the past, under the D’Antoni 7 seconds or less system, the Suns simply would try to outscore the Spurs and did not worry about defense. After consistently losing to the Spurs in the playoffs, the Suns made a change. They hired Steve Kerr as their General Manager and lost coach D’Antoni to the Knicks’ wallet. Kerr hired the defensive oriented Terry Porter to coach his club and then made a trade in which he acquired Shaquile O’Neal. This move was made specifically with the Spurs in mind. They hoped that Shaq would give them a competent defender to throw at Tim Duncan, and also give the Suns more options in the playoffs when the game slowed down.

Through the magic of the Suns’ outstanding medical staff, Shaq is playing as he did in the ‘05/’06 season when he helped the Miami Heat win a championship. Shaq is a scary defender for Tim Duncan. Although Tim is much quicker than Shaq, Shaq gets the All Star treatment from the refs and is able to use his body and arms to not let Tim by, which is a foul if it’s anyone else doing the pushing. Because of this, Tim needs his outside shot to drop in order to have a good game against Shaq.

Honestly, I feel this game is a coin flip. I think it will be decided in the final minute of the game, and given the stars that the Suns have and that the game is in Phoenix, I think they are going to get the critical calls. At the same time, the Spurs have been extremely clutch this season, so they have an edge there. Also, the Suns do not have anyone to guard Manu. In the past, Raja Bell would get that assignment, but they recently traded him. Look for Manu to have a big night. Bottom line, Spurs by 5.